Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025
Analog Finder
Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.
Compare a Real Storm's Track
Pick a storm to see which others ran a similar path, scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits / Cuba shelf on approach, a narrow shallow shelf that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box. Defaults to storms since 1950, where positions come from direct aircraft/satellite tracking rather than reconstructed reports.
Comparing to AL041871 (1871) — peak 3 · FL impact 2.
Storms before 1950 predate aircraft and satellite tracking; their positions are reconstructed from ship and coastal reports, so a track-shape match here carries more positional uncertainty than a modern-era one, even when the visual overlap looks striking.
Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.
Showing 126 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.
- AL041871 (1871)
- AL011928 (1928)
- Florida Straits corridor
Track colors below are always: teal = AL041871, orange = the comparison storm named in each card. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.
Describe a Hypothetical Scenario
Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.
Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.
Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.
