Phase vs Phase, 1950-2025 (ONI coverage)

ENSO Laboratory

Head-to-head comparison of the three ENSO phases across every hurricane season from 1950 to 2025. Raw counts alone mislead when the phases occur unequally often, so each column also shows how many total seasons that phase produced, and the share that brought Florida a hurricane. Storms before 1950 predate the ONI record and are listed in the Timeline without a phase.

El Nino

22 seasons in phase

FL impact seasons7 of 22 (32%)

FL hurricanes11

Center landfalls9

Major impacts (Cat 3+)6

Gulf vs Atlantic8 / 3

Gulf 73%Atlantic 27%

La Nina

18 seasons in phase

FL impact seasons7 of 18 (39%)

FL hurricanes11

Center landfalls10

Major impacts (Cat 3+)3

Gulf vs Atlantic5 / 6

Gulf 45%Atlantic 55%

Neutral

36 seasons in phase

FL impact seasons12 of 36 (33%)

FL hurricanes22

Center landfalls17

Major impacts (Cat 3+)9

Gulf vs Atlantic14 / 8

Gulf 64%Atlantic 36%

Approach side is derived from the HURDAT2 track by a documented heuristic, not a NOAA-published field; see the methodology.

Storms Behind the Numbers

All phases El Nino La Nina Neutral

Both approaches Gulf Atlantic

65 storms match. Phase filters cover 1950+ (ONI); the unfiltered list includes pre-1950 storms.

Season	Storm	ENSO	FL Month	Regions	Approach	Peak Cat	Min P (mb)	Landfall	Join
2024	Milton	Neutral	Oct	SW2 SE1	gulf	5	895	yes	name_match
2024	Helene	Neutral	Sep	NW4	gulf	4	939	yes	name_match
2024	Debby	Neutral	Aug	NW1	gulf	1	979	yes	name_match
2023	Idalia	El Nino	Aug	NW3	gulf	4	942	yes	name_match
2022	Ian	La Nina	Sep	SW4 I-SE1 NE1	gulf	5	937	yes	name_match
2018	Michael	El Nino	Oct	NW5	gulf	5	919	yes	name_match
2016	Hermine	Neutral	Sep	NW1	gulf	1	981	yes	name_match
2005	Wilma	Neutral	Oct	SW3 SE2	gulf	5	882	yes	name_match
2005	Rita	Neutral	Sep	SW1	gulf	5	895	no	name_match
2005	Dennis	Neutral	Jul	NW3	gulf	4	930	yes	name_match
2004	Ivan	El Nino	Sep	NW3	gulf	5	910	no	name_match
2004	Charley	El Nino	Aug	SW4 SE1 NE1	gulf	4	941	yes	name_match
1998	Earl	La Nina	Sep	NW1	gulf	2	964	yes	name_match
1995	Opal	La Nina	Oct	NW3	gulf	4	916	yes	name_match
1987	Floyd	El Nino	Oct	SW1	gulf	1	993	yes	name_match
1985	Kate	Neutral	Nov	NW2	gulf	3	954	yes	name_match
1985	Elena	Neutral	Sep	NW3	gulf	3	953	no	name_match
1975	Eloise	La Nina	Sep	NW3	gulf	3	955	no	name_match
1972	Agnes	El Nino	Jun	NW1	gulf	1	977	no	name_match
1968	Gladys	Neutral	Oct	NW2 NE1	gulf	2	977	yes	name_match
1966	Alma	Neutral	Jun	SW2 NW1	gulf	3	970	yes	name_match
1964	Isbell	La Nina	Oct	SW2 SE1	gulf	3	964	yes	name_match
1956	Flossy	Neutral	Sep	NW1	gulf	1	974	yes	name_match
1953	Hazel	El Nino	Oct	SW1	gulf	1	989	yes	name_match
1953	Florence	El Nino	Sep	NW1	gulf	3	968	yes	name_match
1950	Easy	Neutral	Sep	NW3 SW1	gulf	3	960	yes	name_match
1950	Baker	Neutral	Aug	NW1	gulf	2	979	no	name_match
1947	AL091947 *	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW1 SE1	gulf	2	966	yes	pressure_match
1946	AL061946	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW1 NW1	gulf	2	977	yes	pressure_match
1945	AL011945 *	Pre-ONI	Jun	NW1	gulf	2	n/a	yes	year_month_single
1944	AL131944	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW3 NE2 NW1	gulf	4	937	yes	pressure_match
1924	AL101924 *	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW1 SE1	gulf	5	910	yes	pressure_match
1924	AL051924	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW1	gulf	1	980	yes	pressure_match
1921	Tampa Bay	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW3 NW2 NE1	gulf	4	941	yes	pressure_match
1919	AL021919	Pre-ONI	Sep	SW4 SE2	gulf	4	927	yes	pressure_match
1917	AL041917	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW3	gulf	4	928	yes	pressure_match
1916	AL141916 *	Pre-ONI	Oct	NW2	gulf	2	970	yes	pressure_match
1916	AL021916	Pre-ONI	Jul	NW2	gulf	3	950	no	pressure_match
1915	AL041915	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW1	gulf	2	982	yes	pressure_match
1912	AL031912 *	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW1	gulf	?	n/a	no	pressure_match
1911	AL031911	Pre-ONI	Aug	NW1	gulf	2	972	no	pressure_match
1910	AL051910	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW2	gulf	4	924	yes	year_month_single
1909	AL111909	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW3 SE3	gulf	3	957	yes	year_month_single
1906	AL061906 *	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW2	gulf	3	953	no	pressure_match
1896	AL041896 *	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW3 NE3	gulf	3	960	yes	pressure_match
1896	AL011896 *	Pre-ONI	Jul	NW2	gulf	2	n/a	yes	year_month_single
1888	AL071888	Pre-ONI	Oct	NW2 NE1	gulf	2	970	yes	year_month_single
1887	AL041887 *	Pre-ONI	Jul	NW1	gulf	2	n/a	yes	year_month_single
1886	AL041886	Pre-ONI	Jul	NW1	gulf	1	990	yes	pressure_match
1886	AL021886 *	Pre-ONI	Jun	NW2	gulf	2	n/a	yes	pressure_match
1886	AL011886 *	Pre-ONI	Jun	NW2	gulf	2	n/a	no	pressure_match
1882	AL061882 *	Pre-ONI	Oct	NW1	gulf	4	n/a	yes	year_month_single
1882	AL021882	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW3	gulf	3	949	yes	pressure_match
1877	AL041877 *	Pre-ONI	Oct	NW3	gulf	3	n/a	yes	pressure_match
1877	AL021877 *	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW1	gulf	1	n/a	yes	pressure_match
1874	AL061874	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW1	gulf	1	980	yes	pressure_match
1873	AL051873	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW3 SE2 NE1	gulf	3	959	yes	year_month_single
1873	AL031873 *	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW1	gulf	1	n/a	yes	pressure_match
1871	AL061871 *	Pre-ONI	Sep	NW1 SW1	gulf	1	n/a	yes	year_month_single
1865	AL071865	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW2 SE1	gulf	2	975	yes	year_month_single
1859	AL081859	Pre-ONI	Oct	SW1 SE1	gulf	1	989	yes	pressure_match
1856	Southeastern States	Pre-ONI	Aug	NW2	gulf	3	969	yes	pressure_match
1852	Middle Florida *	Pre-ONI	Oct	NW2	gulf	2	n/a	yes	year_month_single
1852	Great Mobile	Pre-ONI	Aug	SW2 NW1	gulf	3	961	no	year_month_single
1851	Great Middle Florida *	Pre-ONI	Aug	NW3	gulf	3	n/a	yes	year_month_single

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